Flight MH 370

I keep reading more and more stories about this seemingly tragic flight and we all hope of a happy outcome, but one thing has got me riled (sp?) is all the random theories that have come out. I'm not talking about terrorism or dodgy passports but about what would the pilots do....

Is there no standard procedure in aviation in the advent of failures?

There is a huge area of sea and land to be searched for but it strikes me that if there were standard procedures to be followed by the aircrew then the search could be narrowed down vastly.

The way I see it there are 3 scenarios:
A. Something fails and you can't get to your destination
B. Something fails and you can get to your destination (but may have trouble communicating OR navigating OR both).
C. Something fails and you don't realises it.

Possible outcome of A:
- turn back
- go to nearest available runway
- crash (with imminent failures)
- planned crash (if there is such a thing - i.e the NY river landing last year).

Possible outcome for B:
- keep going
- turn back
- go to nearest available runway

Scenario C is a tough one. You could end up in miles away from your destination without fuel and no time to rectify it. Do the pilots keep constant communication with ground crew whilst they are say, mid-Atlantic?. Communication is key here in the event of problems and if there is none then we shouldn't have to guess what might have happened.

Anyway, just my two penneth.

Yes there are standard procedures. But you have just highlighted the issue. No one yet knows what, if anything, was wrong with the aircraft. Therefore many of the above scenarios apply and more and no one can be sure which one the pilots were executing. Hence why the task is a nightmare and the search area so large.

I can only imagine that something went wrong with the plane which forced it down AND something went wrong with communications meaning they couldn't call in a mayday or their position, etc.

There are many possible explanations but the fact no Mayday was sent is worrying.
It could be hijack, unlikely but you can't rule it out.

It could be terrorism, ie a bomb, but you'd have thought that they'd have found wreckage by now. Still, can't rule it out.

It could be sudden and catastrophic failure, like a mid air break up or other mechanical issue. Again the wreckage issue rears up. Still, can't rule it out yet either.

It could be pilot error. Quite often, especially as planes get more complex, crews fail to understand the readings and warnings a planes flight management systems will give them. It could well be that the pilots didn't realise the danger the aircraft was in until it was far too late.

I just think that it's a bit mad and weird that in this day and age, regardless of whether it could be terrorism, malfunction, etc., that this plane and all it's passengers are missing without trace

My thoughts are with the people on board we flew to oz with Malaysian airways who were really attentive and hard working!
Each day more info seems to come out and with the fact that they apparently turned back (but I don't know how far or if it was a stable course)I would geuss for some reason whatever that may be they must of had a TOTAL electrical failure including all backup systems and perhaps attempted to return to the nearest safe haven perhaps even gliding obviously not far for a Boeing jet
Terrorists want the fame and glory if I can comfortably use those expressions and Malaysia is not involved in any political issues that I'm aware of so that sort of rules that out in my head anyway

Whatever happened let's hope for a good outcome no matter how unlikely that is likely to be
I can't stop checking the news on this it's so sad!

Am I just naive to think they would have a black box and transponder, which are able to withstand an explosion and simply tracked via GPRS ?

Maybe I dreamt it?

I think this may turn into another AF447. it took the french many years to finally locate that plane so I see no reason to to expect anyone else to fair any better given the same situation.

Heard on radio that AF was found by a probability mapping exercise.

Yes I think that was the case. Seems like it was a bit of a "perfect storm" so hopefully this new one won't take so long.

Total electrical failure would be ultra rare. That would require both engines to be stopped completely. Even then, it would be usual for a ram air turbine to drop out and power basic flight systems, including the radio. Of course, I guess that system could fail also.
Gliding a commercial jet is tricky, but it can and has been done successfully many times.

Check out Transat 236 or the Gimli Glider for examples.

Aircraft black boxes are in fact, orange usually, to aid in their discovery. Some do have transmitters also but depending on the type and nature of 'crash' they may or may not function.
AF flight 447 that crashed in the Atlantic wasn't found for 2 years, even though wreckage and bodies were first found within 5 days of the aircraft going down. It crashed in 2009 and the black boxes were recovered in 2011 so we're not talking about old technologies either.

I work in the industry and this aspect to me seems antiquated. I can be tracked to the nearest 5m if i have a cell phone on me. If I choose I can have everything I say and do recorded to the cloud as i go.

Yet we are scrabbling around for a location beacon that has a 100m range and could save over 200 souls.

All commercial aircraft should have the cockpit and blackbox data uploaded via satellite as they fly and not be waiting till we find the recorders. The technology is there and mature crazy:

I heard that this hasn't happened because the flight crew don't like being spied on.

Being so close to land I am more surprised that the plane wasn't tracked by radar? It looks like the we're looking in the wrong bit of ocean now. Are they so far behind us? There was a rumour that the uk air radar tracked the stealth bomber when it first came out and this lot can't tell what direction this plane went in.

'Radar' means many things, but most of them aren't 'can see a plane at 200 miles' unless the military own it, and happen to be looking.

Commercial flight control radar is no such thing; a receiver on board the aircraft hears the radar ping and a transponder sends an agreed four-number code back to say who the plane is. The ground radar doesn't receive a reflection, just that squawk code.

Mode S transponders continuously (regularly) transmit course and altitude data - mostly so another plane might hear it and trigger the collision avoidance warning - and anyone can receive it but the range is limited - but look here: http://www.flightradar24.com/9.71,104.06/5 to see how much is flying in that neck of the woods... but also where it isn't, which is where they're looking.

Bob's 'log my life' capability relies on using a network of cell phone connections to allow data to pass continuously; even if cell phones were allowed to connect from altitude (they're not; the footprint affects too many hubs and confuses the system) it still wouldn't work over the ocean.

Using a dedicated satellite system would require either a few in the (crowded) geostationary orbit or a constellation of around a dozen nearer to home, plus all the infrastructure necessary to replace them as they die and to monitor them... billions of dollars. Even using existing commercial satellites still doesn't come cheap; several thousand dollars an hour for a low bitrate channel (though perhaps some of the satellite internet systems could be used). Either way, it's a hell of cost on every flight for a system that in the vast majority of cases is never used.

But was it so close to land? The AF flight that sadly went down was pilot error. It took 5 days over a very big area to find bits of floating debris.

This one seems strange, I've not seen a report about last location on radar or anything. The AF incident said straight away it was too far over the sea and hence not covered by land radar. They have searched both sides of the Malaysian peninsula, and a fair old chunk in what would be the wrong areas for the flight path. It feels a bit like someone isn't telling the whole truth. It wouldn't surprise me if the Chinese government were involved.

I didn't know that, thanks

There was a report on Sky that somebody made a call to a passenger's mobile. They have tried repeating without luck.

This is a mystifyingly tragic case, and now one of total confusion it seems. Five days on and still nothing.

My own personal theory is it may have suffered some kind of decompression issue (not necessarily explosive) and whilst the crew became hypoxic, in a confused state made things worse by changing course/altitude and switching things off like the transponder etc, and ended up passing out with the jet below radar coverage and heading out over the Indian ocean until it ran out of fuel (which would be a fair way).
Of course this raises even more questions to which I don’t have answers to!

However similar incidents have happened, Payne Stewart’s learjet crash, Helios flight 522, to name two.

But for the sake of the families of those caught up in all this, i hope something/anything is found soon.

It is the radar tracking issue that is confusing. It seems none of the information can be trusted any more as each piece of information given is subsequently denied or revised. It does begin to smack of a cover up, and that unfortunately will be fuel for conspiracy theories.

To disappear from radar the plane either exploded, had it's tracking turned off or descended below radar range, and so far there seems to be no evidence of any of those scenarios.

The dealing of this tragedy by the Malaysian authorities and MH is awful and goes against all airline procedures, I can't imagine what it must be like for the victims families not knowing anything and trusting no-one.

This radar tracking issues bothers me too, If a flight over Europe or the states for example deviates from its planned flight path in heading or altitude even slightly air traffic will be on them very quickly, if they are unresponsive (radio/transponder code etc.) fighter jets are sent to intercept simple.
MH370 appears to have been off heading, off altitude, transponder off and not responding to radio calls.
The military defiantly tracked something over Strait of Malacca but are now not sure whether it was MH370 on not. Why was nothing sent up to identify it?

There is some sort of cover-up going on here, but I feel it is one of incompetence!

No where can I recall reading that the transponder was switched off, can someone point me to that please.

We don’t know if it was switched off or not, just that it stopped transmitting (when the aircraft dropped off civilian radar systems). Either due to aircraft brake up, power loss or human input.

I haven't read too much about this situation but from what I have seen it does look strange.

However, the fact that no wreckage has been found doesn't surprise me. I used to fly Nimrods in the RAF and have been on many sea searches. What you have to appreciate is the sheer expanse of sea that there is. Yes there are ways to narrow down the search area but in this case there seems to be a doubt over where to even start, so it is literally a needle in a haystack exercise.

Also, even from low level (we used to fly as low as 200 feet) it is incredibly hard to spot small items, which if the aircraft has broken up may be the case. Large items may be picked up by search radar but sea state and swell height may be masking the return, or they may already have sunk.

My 7 year old Grandson would love you They have a Nimrod at the RAF Museum at Cosford and it's his favourite plane.

I think you just got insulted, Pinnin

Theresa, it was a cracking aeroplane - sadly missed, your grandson has good taste!

Not at all Andrew it did look old and a bit of an oddity. On the subject of museums, I went to the National Museum of flight up here in Scotland to specifically show my daughter what I used to fly (she had been on one before but she was so young at the time that she can't remember). However, what they have is only the front section of the aircraft and we weren't allowed on. Seeing the old girl like that was actually quite an emotional experience...not sure how I would have coped had we been allowed on....

I had the misfortune for witnessing the scrapping of the first production Nimrod MRA4 a couple of years ago.
An experience I will never forget, especially the sound!
It was effectively a brand new aircraft and was smashed to bits in less than a hour, such a waste.
But don't get me started.

Right back on topic!

This incident is just getting stranger and stranger!

news link

That would explain a lot as to why no trace has been found to the east of Malaysia. It does then also mean a missive search area to the west.

The news this morning adds to the confusion, tracking systems deliberately turned off, would have required in depth knowledge of these systems.

It's all getting very strange. It now, sort of, points towards a hijack/planenap, but then where are the demands/ransom demand if it was?

If we head down conspiracy lane, I'd think you'd have to ask who or what was aboard. Maybe there are demands. Doesn't mean the general public would necessarily know.

It would make a rather large dirty nuclear bomb.

Where could you land a 777 where nobody with a phone could see it? I still fear it has ended badly, but it is certainly intriguing.

Given the shambolic nature of the way it's been handled, I doubt tptb out there could keep anything a secret for long.

It's been stolen and we'll see what he'll a 777 can create shortly.
Not that I'm a pessimist but it all feels wrong.

According to BBC news the authorities are now talking to any country that the plane may have flown over...



If you don't know if your plane is France or Australia then you're pretty f***ed.

Also interesting that they're talking to all of the -stans, but no mention of Russia.

Perhaps someone's come up with a neat way of acquiring planes for an internal service, without all that tedious handing over several hundred million quid a time?

Do these planes come complete with crew and passengers?

I find the while thing scary as hell! The BBC news this evening showed how easy it was for even a novice to switch things off and redirect the plane.

Thinking long and hard, it can only be theft. But to what end?

There can't be a black market for passenger planes of that size, you can't sell a plane with no history and how do you maintain something like that? Then how do you use it without drawing attention?

The news article I have just seen has stated that the new search area Is equal to 10% of the worlds surface!

So It's gone from looking for a needle in a hay stack, to looking for a needle in several massive fields full of hay stacks!

Incredible, I stupidly thought that every move anyone made was tracked, all calls listened to and yet 270 odd people can disappear and the people who I thought would know haven't got a clue!

There's probably a fly-by-night character somewhere.

Not sure where atm though....

Perhaps the plane is not what any thief was after.

The plane had 227 passengers aboard but the capacity is 280ish. Obviously not all flights are always full but there's 50 people's worth of weight not on board.

If the average person weighs 70kg and has 20kg of baggage allowance that's around 4.5 tonnes of cargo which could have been aboard.

What's 4.5 tonne of gold worth?

There's a sane discussion of that very point on El Reg... http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/03/18/mh370_airliner_mystery_the_iel_regi_pubdinnerparty_guide/

Interesting. I heard it from a guy who works at MIRA and is a bit of an anorak when it comes to looking for information in his spare time.

Interestingly, 4.5 ton of gold is worth over $200million. Or, enough to pay off everyone on board handsomely or to buy enough bullets for the ones who might talk.

I'm not normally one for conspiracy theories, but this seems to be the one which has been backed up with at least some degree of reasoning.

Better if they were shipping cash. Dollars you can spend anywhere, but getting change for an ingot... you have to know the right people and/or have a damn good story about your possession of said ingot.

Dear Mr Barnacle,

It is most glorious to make your acquaintance and to have the god given opportunity to do business with you.

My name is crown prince Klonsarc of Myanmar and I have in my possession 4,500 1kg bars of gold valued at $180,000,000 (one-hundred and eighty million US dollars).

Unfortunately, because of export restrictions I cannot get them out of the country, so I am looking for honest and trustworthy people, like your good self, who have a UK or US bank account to...

An interesting article that nicely sums up what is known so far, without getting to lost down conspiracy lane.

Something that interests me though, they know where and when MH370 was last tracked on Malaysian Military radar, and presumably its approximate altitude and heading.
They also have the time of the last Inmarsat ‘ping’ somewhere on the massive northern or southern hemisphere arcs that have been shown. But they must also have at least 5-6 other hourly ‘pings’ that can surly be pinned down to similar arcs, which would allow further calculations on flight path and approx. final location at the last ‘ping’.
They must know the distance between these arcs so surly they would be able to work out (with the timings) if the aircraft was flying almost along the arcs or away from or towards the point on the earth the satellite is above. This would surly rule out big chunks of the final arcs that have been published.
Also it has been stated that the aircraft could have flown in any direction for up to an hour after its last 'ping'.

Your last point is the key. They have an hours flight from the last ping in any direction. Now I assume that they would prioritise along the flight assumed by previous pings. Even 1/2 an hour at 500mph plus is 250mile radius along the two arcs.

More information is known than is being disclosed, and that is normal practice.

Who had an iPhone on the flight? Find my iPhone! Nothing more to add

One report I just read suggested that the plane was flying high (46,000ft) and then very low, possible explanation is the pilot trying to shake potential hyjackers about abit...not sure they'll ever find out.

I like this take......

here

Roy

I sore this theory earlier today and its thoroughly plausible.

This was already a shambles but it's now turned into a complete farce...It now appears that the aircraft reached 45,000ft shortly after take off, apparently the oxygen would have only lasted 12 minutes and the pilot (who ever that was) stayed at that height for 25 minutes...

My first question would be why wasn't this highlighted anywhere? Surely it would be easy for a system to kick off various alarms if a aircraft went either too high or low? Send a couple of jets up to find out whats going on?

Where did you get this info. From previous reports it look like someone made some weypoint changes as the aircraft passed over Malaysia, then it seems to have turned south and headed into doom. I would think, and hope, all souls were dead long before the fuel ran out and plunged into the sea.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/4669...-suicide-plunge

There's your problem, you're using the Express as a news source.

I knew you would kick off about this, all we need is Jim to dive in now and we'll have both of you in the net

Interesting reading, but still 100% supposition and a lot based on altitude reports that are unreliable according to other sources. There is no evidence so far to rule out many causes, but the most sensational ones get the attention of the media

I saw this and thought it was plausible, but it got comprehensively debunked later.

What's your problem with our comments, Shifty, is the truth too hot to handle...?!

And there it is, two in a bush

The truth is out there fellas and yes it is sometimes reported in the Express and the Mail.

Indeed it is, but that is not to say that everything reported in the Express and the Mail is the truth...

... Unless it is derogatory and about messrs Dacre, Rothermere or Desmond.

Meanwhile, over on PPRUNE, the discussion is in excess of four hundred pages...

I did say sometimes