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The count down to mainstream electric vehicles
#1558535
28/12/2015 00:51
28/12/2015 00:51
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Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 3,612 S. Wales. Way beyond my means
Gripped
OP
Club member 1924
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OP
Club member 1924
Forum is my job
Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 3,612
S. Wales. Way beyond my means
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So the electric car has been around since 1834, but battery and motor technology didn't really evolve into a credible alternative to combustion engines until recently. We've had the Prius, the Leaf, the Ampera, the Tesla to name but a few. Now we have serious motorbike contenders from the likes of Zero, which have bhp's similar to superbikes, yet 3 times the torque from zero rpm. Oh, and a similar range to a tank of fuel. No gears, simple transmission. Even "old skool" Harley Davidson have entered the fray. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nYKFeOQrqg0Prices are now also comparable to petrol bikes... which is a game changer. I could commute to work and back for pence rather than pounds (and get there with more flies in my teeth than normal). Seems to me that despite the cheap(ish) fuel at the moment, we are close to a tipping point where electric vehicles will become truly mainstream, due to the obvious cheap running costs, but also for the thrill seekers looking for raw acceleration. Plug in hybrids seem to offer the best all round solution - commute on electric from Monday to Friday, then take the family away on petrol. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0e-jquwHKtIFor the first time, I've been hankering after something you plug in rather than fill up. So I wondered who else had seen the [electric] light....Skins... I note you have a Leaf. So, "are we nearly there yet?" Or am I just being a premature greeny ?
Last edited by Gripped; 28/12/2015 01:37.
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Re: The count down to mainstream electric vehicles
[Re: Gripped]
#1558548
28/12/2015 12:32
28/12/2015 12:32
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Skins
Unregistered
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Skins
Unregistered
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I hope it doesn't catch on too much so we can continue to get free fuel without queueing for it. Our problem now is we're used to almost free motoring that it will be very difficult to go back to paying for liquid fuel.
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Re: The count down to mainstream electric vehicles
[Re: Gripped]
#1558571
28/12/2015 20:49
28/12/2015 20:49
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Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 33,771 Berlin
barnacle
Club Member 18 - ex-Minister without Portfolio
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Club Member 18 - ex-Minister without Portfolio
Forum Demigod
Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 33,771
Berlin
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One, no, two minor problems.
One: feel free to calculate the energy spent daily in petrol and diesel cars (ignore lorries and buses, it will only depress you). You will find[1] it equals around two thirds of the current national grid output, which is currently within a couple of percent of falling over. There is therefore a need to pretty much double both the generating capacity and the distribution infrastructure in the next few years.
Two: £37-40 billion pounds is raised in VED, Petrol/Diesel tax, and VAT on those. That's around 8% of the UK tax take. Switching to electric cannot but require electricity prices to include those taxes, or the money to be raised some other way. I note that California (from memory) has a two-level price on electricity: it gets a lot more expensive once you start filling up your Tesla at home.
Nonetheless I would like to see more electric cars around, since they at least offer the chance to use a low-carbon generated fuel at best, and at worst generation at the power station is a more efficient (i.e. lower carbon) way of getting the power.
[1] 30kW is about the minimum to maintain a car at 70mph. For 12,000 miles that's about 5MWh required. For 35,000,000 cars in the UK we need a *minimum* of 175,000GWh. Generation is about 300,000GWh...
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Re: The count down to mainstream electric vehicles
[Re: barnacle]
#1558581
29/12/2015 01:03
29/12/2015 01:03
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Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 3,612 S. Wales. Way beyond my means
Gripped
OP
Club member 1924
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OP
Club member 1924
Forum is my job
Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 3,612
S. Wales. Way beyond my means
|
One, no, two minor problems.
[1] 30kW is about the minimum to maintain a car at 70mph. For 12,000 miles that's about 5MWh required. For 35,000,000 cars in the UK we need a *minimum* of 175,000GWh. Generation is about 300,000GWh... That's ok. I generate 3MWh a year from my solar PV array on the roof. Just need to make sure I charge up during sunny days... Which of course isn't when you need it.... Oops. The a UK power industry is in a bit of a pickle until Nuc comes on line, though there are lots of fossil fuel generators bidding into the market for peak demand. So ultimately this becomes an argument about where we get our power from. Personally I think the UK policy is too short-termist and we should be investing more in diverse renewables.
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Re: The count down to mainstream electric vehicles
[Re: Gripped]
#1558587
29/12/2015 09:29
29/12/2015 09:29
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Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 33,771 Berlin
barnacle
Club Member 18 - ex-Minister without Portfolio
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Club Member 18 - ex-Minister without Portfolio
Forum Demigod
Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 33,771
Berlin
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It's probably true.
Back of the envelope calculation... Insolation is around 750W/m^2 in those locations and conversion efficiencies of maybe 20% would give you 150W/m^2; the sun shines effectively about ten hours a day so that's 1.5kWh/m^2 per day, so 20,000,000,000,000kWh/1.5kWh is about 1,333,000,000,000 square meters, 1,333,000 square kilometers, call it 1300 by 1000 km. About four times the surface area of the UK, so I think their boxes are a bit small (perhaps they didn't account for darkness?)
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Re: The count down to mainstream electric vehicles
[Re: Gripped]
#1559318
07/01/2016 00:17
07/01/2016 00:17
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Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 754 The South of the West
JonH
Enjoying the ride
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Enjoying the ride
Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 754
The South of the West
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Unfortunately, I dont think electric will be a motoring platform for those (maybe few) people who intend to keep their cars for years and years. Battery life is finite (some bodies reckon about 120 - 150,000 miles of driving only), costs potentially a few thousand £ to replace - and that is assuming that the battery banks will still be available for that particular physical design ?.
And if you sell a car every three years....... what value for a battery or hybrid with a duff power source hanging off the back ????.
No.199
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Re: The count down to mainstream electric vehicles
[Re: Gripped]
#1559353
07/01/2016 13:09
07/01/2016 13:09
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Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 754 The South of the West
JonH
Enjoying the ride
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Enjoying the ride
Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 754
The South of the West
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The only problem with lease duration legal agreements is just that - your are paying £45 per month just for the fuel store container (the physical battery).
And its these costs that the eco fraternity (without disrespecting them!) decide not to make as equally clear as they do the claim that a recharge only costs 'pence' for a journey.
Its like a conventional manufacturer advertising a car at 60mpg and only a few pence per mile and then saying to the customer 'oh! by the way - you've also got to lease the petrol tank at £20 per month !!! '
And you are paying the lease ecven if you do just one mile a month, or 10,000 miles per month (but i suspect lease agreements also stipulate a 'fair mileage' clause ??
Fit sails to the roof - thats the answer !
No.199
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