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Re: in or out
[Re: jimboy]
#1569978
17/04/2016 10:52
17/04/2016 10:52
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Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 17,832 Auld Reekie
Edinburgh
Club President, member225
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Club President, member225
Forum veteran
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 17,832
Auld Reekie
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After a weekly dose of Question Time Mrs Ed and I find we change our minds almost as regularly.
My dilemma is based around the following, and perhaps more:
War - after 70+ years free of European conflict how likely is Brexit to facilitate such a conflict
Borders - does Brexit imply still allowing immigration either for family, employment or humanitarian reasons and would that reduce the numbers
Jobs - would Brexit create such hassle with existing agreements and infastructure that the UK would never recover or would sufficient new agreements and trading partners be found as a replacement
Trading agreements - would Britain need to be "Norway", "Denmark" or could it work out a "British" one
Rights - would leaving the EU guarantee a deterioration of Human and Employees' rights and would citizens rebel against any draconian measures which would erode the standards that have been set over the years?
Alliances - would Brexit compromise G20 talks, NATO or UN membership
Climate - if we believe in climate change/energy efficiency/green issues should anything change for the better or worse
Costs - would the savings from contributions to the EU after Brexit be swallowed up by unforeseen costs of new trade agreements/tariffs (although it's said tariffs are unlikely) or could they be realistically be channelled back into Britain's health and education (and not funnelled away into private off-shore schemes.
Scotland - really uncertain about this!
Travel - during Britain's membership the ease of movement has been a blessing for recreation, education and family. Will exit mean a simple return to the old days or will we have learnt something to make international transit from Brexit to Europe easier than those days. I'd imagine travelling through Europe might be like going to the US - visas and power-happy uniformed folk at border points but once you're in, you're in. "Visa for Europe, please". Oh and the related employment hassle, green cards, the lot.
BumbleBee carer
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Re: in or out
[Re: MeanRedSpider]
#1569980
17/04/2016 10:55
17/04/2016 10:55
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Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 17,832 Auld Reekie
Edinburgh
Club President, member225
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Club President, member225
Forum veteran
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 17,832
Auld Reekie
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Xenophobia is an easy opt out. Yes but I think certain scaremongerers deliberately correlate "xenophobia" with "border control" in their sophistry.
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Re: in or out
[Re: Edinburgh]
#1569981
17/04/2016 10:59
17/04/2016 10:59
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Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 8,852 Cambridge & Cotswolds
MeanRedSpider
Je suis un Coupé
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Je suis un Coupé
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 8,852
Cambridge & Cotswolds
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Xenophobia is an easy opt out. Yes but I think certain scaremongerers deliberately correlate "xenophobia" with "border control" in their sophistry. But if we consider ourselves Europeans, which part of Europe they come from shouldn't matter. The border control for employment protection (which, after all, is the only real difference Brexit will bring as far as borders are concerned) is a key arguement for a great deal of likely Out voters.
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Re: in or out
[Re: jimboy]
#1569982
17/04/2016 11:13
17/04/2016 11:13
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Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 1,650 Dark side of the Moon
H_R
My life on the forum
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My life on the forum
Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 1,650
Dark side of the Moon
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Agree with the above! (Sorry Mansilla's post) but this brings us full circle to the reasons people want to leave. it's the migrants that don't want to get jobs that are a burden on the system and the over supply of cheap labour keeping wages down whilst the true cost of living keeps going up! Cheap labour is now in oversupply so unless you have a skilled job or a trade those job wages will be kept low Great for businesses who employ cheap labour! But not great for the cheap labour employees Yes we need some migration it would just be good to get control of it again and hopefully the increase in population may start to slow down (Mrs note I said the "increase" in population may "start to slow down" Nowhere did I say reduce!  ) If the government had sorted the migration issue when renegotiating our terms rather than the poor attempt they made ending up with a policy which is based on votes who on earth would be thinking on leaving I think the majority want to have control on the immigration especially the ones that have no needed skills The bottom line is we have too many unskilled which is killing the jobs market for the unskilled and we seem to have no control on who comes in Cameron did a poor job renegotiating our terms! Let's see how many more will start the journey into Europe now the wether is improving and how many eventually end up here its quite scary!
Last edited by H_R; 17/04/2016 11:17. Reason: Mansilla's post too slow typing between working
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Re: in or out
[Re: jimboy]
#1569988
17/04/2016 12:59
17/04/2016 12:59
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Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 8,852 Cambridge & Cotswolds
MeanRedSpider
Je suis un Coupé
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Je suis un Coupé
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 8,852
Cambridge & Cotswolds
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You have not explained, H-R, why my old employer needed to hire 160 Poles. It's certainly NOT because they were cheap because there's a fixed salary structure in that company.
I think this idea of keeping unskilled labour out is solving the wrong problem.
Last edited by MeanRedSpider; 17/04/2016 12:59.
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Re: in or out
[Re: MeanRedSpider]
#1569999
17/04/2016 14:51
17/04/2016 14:51
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Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 5,102 ation
szkom
Club member 2000
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Club member 2000
Forum is my life
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 5,102
ation
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The problem I mean is why we don't have the skilled people (plumbers, electricians etc) that we need. Are the unskilled people too stupid to train to do these jobs?
Quite probably. But that in itself is a fact of life as some people can't or won't try. However the issue, I think, is that the education system is set up to push those that can into more academically centred work. The remaining are pushed towards vocational employment. And best I can tell, that almost seems like a holding facility until any further obligation is done. I just don't think skilled trades are given the attention/promotion they should have.
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Re: in or out
[Re: szkom]
#1570002
17/04/2016 15:12
17/04/2016 15:12
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Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 16,603 Corridor of Uncertainty
Jim_Clennell
Forum veteran
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Forum veteran
Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 16,603
Corridor of Uncertainty
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The problem I mean is why we don't have the skilled people (plumbers, electricians etc) that we need. Are the unskilled people too stupid to train to do these jobs?
Quite probably. But that in itself is a fact of life. The issue, I think, is that the education system is set up to push those that can into more academically centred work. The remaining are pushed towards vocational employment. And best I can tell, that almost seems like a holding facility until any further obligation is done. I just don't think skilled trades are given the attention they should have. I absolutely agree with this. The pointless and ridiculous herding of young people into university in the last 20 years has achieved nothing for most of them other than to create debt and leave them competing with the same applicants for the same jobs, 3 years later. University - in my opinion - should be the equivalent of vocational training for really bright people. People who need the knowledge only available from top academics. Not having a BA or BSc should not prevent people from accessing vast areas of employment where a degree is neither necessary nor relevant. Far, far greater emphasis and funding should have been given to less-academic and vocational training and apprenticeships.
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Re: in or out
[Re: jimboy]
#1570020
17/04/2016 17:52
17/04/2016 17:52
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Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 611 Aberdeenshire,Scotland
Azzura
Enjoying the ride
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Enjoying the ride
Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 611
Aberdeenshire,Scotland
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I get very irritated by the jobs argument. It seems there are a chunk of people who think that if we were to leave, all the Eastern Europeans would suddenly go back. That is nonsense. Many - probably most - are now settled. They have jobs, their kids go to school, they have mortgages, they have social networks. So many will stay. Their lives are here. In much the same way, I don't expect Continental Europe will empty of Brits. They are here, and we are there because being in the EU gives unfettered rights of travel and residence. If we are out, then they have no right to be here, and we have no right to be there. They will go because they will have no legal right to stay. If the government creates such a legal right - what was the point in leaving the EU? The real reason that many right wing business types want to leave is so that they can remove one of the most important things Europe has done for us, employment rights. The only way that the UK out of the EU can compete on the world market would be to undercut our former business partners on trading contracts, and to do so they need ( and want ) to savagely cut employment rights, and costs. Ask an American who lives in an "at will" State just how much they love living from day to day not knowing whether their job will continue or whether they are going to be summarily sacked without any compensation.
Yesterday Sprint Blue 20VT,today Denim Blue TT225
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Re: in or out
[Re: Jim_Clennell]
#1570021
17/04/2016 17:53
17/04/2016 17:53
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Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 1,336 Selby
Mansilla
My job on the forum
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My job on the forum
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 1,336
Selby
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I would like to see reliable figures for unemployment among EU migrants, in particular, unskilled workers. Whilst I'm sure it is a phenomenon, I'm much less certain that it hasn't been over-played as a proportion of general unemployment. Me too. I don't doubt that freeloading migrants exist. I also recognise that there are many freeloading Brits. I strongly suspect that the latter hugely outnumber the former. I'm also clear that most of the migrants that live near me are skilled. Typically blue collar skills, I grant you - brickies, electricians, mechanics. But skilled, and skills that we need and are failing to home-grow for whatever reason. Also, Let's face it, if you are a freeloading layabout mouth breather, you are not likely to be inclined to cross a continent to (not) do it. I also strongly suspect that migrants, being typically young, healthy and employed, are net contributors to the state. I'd like too see reliable numbers about that, too.
1. Think of something witty and urbane 2. Imagine it written here
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Re: in or out
[Re: Azzura]
#1570025
17/04/2016 18:09
17/04/2016 18:09
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Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 1,336 Selby
Mansilla
My job on the forum
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My job on the forum
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 1,336
Selby
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They are here, and we are there because being in the EU gives unfettered rights of travel and residence. Migrants are where they are because they think life there offers something better, not because of EU rights. The EU right of Travel facilitates that. If we are out, then they have no right to be here, and we have no right to be there. They will go because they will have no legal right to stay. If the government creates such a legal right - what was the point in leaving the EU? This is where it gets interesting - I don't believe that. I think regardless of Brexit free movement will stay. Norway and Switzerland both had to allow free movement of EU citizens to get their trade relationships. I simply do not believe that we would ever get a trade deal that did not include free movement - why would the rest of the EU grant it? And if we don't have open access to Europe we would, at the very least, need a radical shift in our economy. I agree up to a point with your last paragraph - workers rights in Europe are way better than the US, and that is a good thing.
1. Think of something witty and urbane 2. Imagine it written here
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Re: in or out
[Re: Azzura]
#1570026
17/04/2016 18:16
17/04/2016 18:16
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Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 33,771 Berlin
barnacle
Club Member 18 - ex-Minister without Portfolio
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Club Member 18 - ex-Minister without Portfolio
Forum Demigod
Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 33,771
Berlin
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The real reason that many right wing business types want to leave is so that they can remove one of the most important things Europe has done for us, employment rights.
This. Plus the inconvenient fact that *throughout history* it has always been the brightest and best who have upped stakes and moved along for a better living. Regarding skills in this country: by and large the wrong things are being taught. Even a specialist technical degree such as electronics produces graduates who know all there is to know about the electron but a complete ignorance as to which end of a soldering iron is hot; the engineering trades in general would much rather I think get a school leaver with aptitude *who can be taught* rather than one who has been pushed through university but has no practical abilities. There has been for years a push to get everyone with some sort of higher education qualification and yet we still get people coming through who are functionally illiterate and innumerate at sixteen or eighteen (and graduates who can't are little if any better). There needs to be an observation that some shool-goers need not to study Shakespeare and calculus but practical skills - and there should be *no* opprobrium heaped upon them for choosing the practical path. I believe the German school system works in that way.
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Re: in or out
[Re: jimboy]
#1570030
17/04/2016 18:51
17/04/2016 18:51
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Big_Muzzie
Unregistered
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Big_Muzzie
Unregistered
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I'm not commenting again on this, there is so much guff stated and stupid comments it's making my blood boil. The whole picture needs to be viewed, not just from the narrow perspective of "I". Sometimes the life of "I" improves in the long term, forgetting short term discomfort.
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Re: in or out
[Re: barnacle]
#1570034
17/04/2016 19:04
17/04/2016 19:04
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Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 17,832 Auld Reekie
Edinburgh
Club President, member225
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Club President, member225
Forum veteran
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 17,832
Auld Reekie
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There has been for years a push to get everyone with some sort of higher education qualification and yet we still get people coming through who are functionally illiterate and innumerate at sixteen or eighteen (and graduates who can't are little if any better). There needs to be an observation that some shool-goers need not to study Shakespeare and calculus but practical skills - and there should be *no* opprobrium heaped upon them for choosing the practical path.
I believe the German school system works in that way.
This. A way to give hundreds of thousands of school leavers a "pathway" who might have formerly joined the ranks of skilled (and unskilled) workers in large industries, many of which are either highly automated or whose produce has been outsourced to other (sweat-shop) countries. How could these hordes be allowed to roam the streets; no, pop them into education as said above regardless of the fact they may be better of with a trade. Remember the number of former colleges being upgraded to university level... I also agree that there has been almost a snobbish attitude encouraged toward practical skills by the academic side, or perhaps the people in power at the time, whereas in Germany for instance there are plenty of schemes for young people to leave school early and learn a trade with an established employer, with the option of returning to school later to gain qualifications if required. With regard to Azzura's remark about US working conditions, yes they are pretty harsh compared to ours but my question earlier on was whether we would allow that sort of aggressive change in the workplace to occur. I would like to think not.
BumbleBee carer
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Re: in or out
[Re: Edinburgh]
#1570040
17/04/2016 20:11
17/04/2016 20:11
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Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 611 Aberdeenshire,Scotland
Azzura
Enjoying the ride
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Enjoying the ride
Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 611
Aberdeenshire,Scotland
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my question earlier on was whether we would allow that sort of aggressive change in the workplace to occur. I would like to think not.
Like we wouldn't allow the imposition of university fees, then allow the "absolute maximum level" of such fees to become the standard starting point? Or how we wouldn't allow bedroom tax? Or how we wouldn't allow sanctioning of benefits on disabled people?Or how we wouldn't allow State Re-Education camps for parents set up by "Named Persons"? Or how we wouldn't allow employers to exploit workers with zero hours contracts? Apparently we as a country will in fact allow just about anything. Listen to any of the pro leave business proponents and just about all they talk about is wanting to rid themselves of "red tape". By which they mean those pesky employment rights and protections you enjoy
Yesterday Sprint Blue 20VT,today Denim Blue TT225
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Re: in or out
[Re: Azzura]
#1570051
17/04/2016 22:14
17/04/2016 22:14
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Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 17,832 Auld Reekie
Edinburgh
Club President, member225
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Club President, member225
Forum veteran
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 17,832
Auld Reekie
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my question earlier on was whether we would allow that sort of aggressive change in the workplace to occur. I would like to think not.
Like we wouldn't allow the imposition of university fees, then allow the "absolute maximum level" of such fees to become the standard starting point? Or how we wouldn't allow bedroom tax? Or how we wouldn't allow sanctioning of benefits on disabled people?Or how we wouldn't allow State Re-Education camps for parents set up by "Named Persons"? Or how we wouldn't allow employers to exploit workers with zero hours contracts? Apparently we as a country will in fact allow just about anything. Listen to any of the pro leave business proponents and just about all they talk about is wanting to rid themselves of "red tape". By which they mean those pesky employment rights and protections you enjoy Well the above has indeed come to pass, but that's ''within'' the EU!
BumbleBee carer
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Re: in or out
[Re: jimboy]
#1570060
17/04/2016 23:20
17/04/2016 23:20
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Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 611 Aberdeenshire,Scotland
Azzura
Enjoying the ride
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Enjoying the ride
Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 611
Aberdeenshire,Scotland
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Exactly. If these things happen when we have EU legislation that protects our employment rights AND our Human Rights, just imagine what the barstewards will be able to do to us without all that pesky "red tape" hindering them.
Yesterday Sprint Blue 20VT,today Denim Blue TT225
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Re: in or out
[Re: Azzura]
#1570065
17/04/2016 23:40
17/04/2016 23:40
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Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 17,832 Auld Reekie
Edinburgh
Club President, member225
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Club President, member225
Forum veteran
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 17,832
Auld Reekie
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Exactly. If these things happen when we have EU legislation that protects our employment rights AND our Human Rights, just imagine what the barstewards will be able to do to us without all that pesky "red tape" hindering them. Are you suggesting that "either" government, assuming it's going to be one of two persuasions, would carry out these atrocities? I would see the present one trying it on but not convinced the opposition would - unless it went all Blairite again. 
BumbleBee carer
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Re: in or out
[Re: Edinburgh]
#1570078
18/04/2016 03:04
18/04/2016 03:04
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Joined: Jun 2006
Posts: 23,327 North Wales
Theresa
Former Presidentessa Club member 58
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Former Presidentessa Club member 58
Forum Fossil
Joined: Jun 2006
Posts: 23,327
North Wales
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And if they did leave, who would clean the floors of the hospitals People like me and my work mates! This is what I do for a living and is my main job, as well as two other similar jobs that I don't want migrants taking, leaving nothing for the likes of me. I've had management roles, I've had roles with more responsibility - I'm a City and Guilds qualified vehicle mechanic, etc., but I'm happier doing what I do now, get paid a reasonable amount and don't want that taken away from me.
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Re: in or out
[Re: jimboy]
#1570189
18/04/2016 23:46
18/04/2016 23:46
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TbirdX
Unregistered
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TbirdX
Unregistered
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I gave up listening to the politicians, none of them can be relied upon to give us any unbiased facts, period.
So, what does this leaves us, gut instinct perhaps, works for me, but even then, ultimately it won't make any difference.
Any Brexit will get bogged down in 'negotiations' for years, perhaps decades while politicians of all types ride the committee meeting gravy train. One assumes that any deal the Uk tried to broker would need the agreement of all other members....good luck with that.
I'd wager I'll be riding a marshmellow escalator to mars before the UK would be allowed to exit the E.U.
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