This FT article makes for an interesting read, discussing the differing modelling carried out by researchers.

Seems we are following the basic advice of Imperial College which is somewhat gloomier than University of Oxford et al...

The Daily Fail publishes most of the same article but elected to omit a couple of fairly significant bits
Daily Mail

Wishing you all a speedy and full recovery. Totally agree about the frustration - our household would love to volunteer.

Unfortunately I don’t have an FT sub. Radio 4’s More or Less programme covered something similar. One interesting fact was that the likelihood of dying from CV19 (in a two week period) is the same as dying in the year. ie if you’re 85, your chance of dying from a CV19 is the same as your chance of dying this year (listen for a better explanation). Another interesting stat is that only 100 people have died from seasonal flu vs the usual 6000-ish. The figures from Iran are clearly nonsense (I was thinking that yesterday looking at the Johns Hopkins charts - they’re all very similar in shape except Iran)

I’m still feeling pretty crap but not too horrible

If it's not unethical here it is

Clive Cookson, Science Editor, FT, YESTERDAY


The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.

“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said.

The modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group indicates that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. Like many emerging infections, it spread invisibly for more than a month before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February.

The research presents a very different view of the epidemic to the modelling at Imperial College London, which has strongly influenced government policy. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said Prof Gupta. 

However, she was reluctant to criticise the government for shutting down the country to suppress viral spread, because the accuracy of the Oxford model has not yet been confirmed and, even if it is correct, social distancing will reduce the number of people becoming seriously ill and relieve severe pressure on the NHS during the peak of the epidemic.

The Oxford study is based on a what is known as a “susceptibility-infected-recovered model” of Covid-19, built up from case and death reports from the UK and Italy. The researchers made what they regard as the most plausible assumptions about the behaviour of the virus.

The modelling brings back into focus “herd immunity”, the idea that the virus will stop spreading when enough people have become resistant to it because they have already been infected. The government abandoned its unofficial herd immunity strategy — allowing controlled spread of infection — after its scientific advisers said this would swamp the National Health Service with critically ill patients. 

But the Oxford results would mean the country had already acquired substantial herd immunity through the unrecognised spread of Covid-19 over more than two months. If the findings are confirmed by testing, then the current restrictions could be removed much sooner than ministers have indicated.

Although some experts have shed doubt on the strength and length of the human immune response to the virus, Prof Gupta said the emerging evidence made her confident that humanity would build up herd immunity against Covid-19.

To provide the necessary evidence, the Oxford group is working with colleagues at the Universities of Cambridge and Kent to start antibody testing on the general population as soon as possible, using specialised “neutralisation assays which provide reliable readout of protective immunity,” Prof Gupta said. They hope to start testing later this week and obtain preliminary results within a few days.

For every academic view there is a completely opposite academic view and they all say the data supports their hypothesis...

Our household has been in some sort of lock down for a wee while before it was made official due mainly for our son. Obviously I take heed of the news, but in all honesty I'm not going looking for statistics & other facts that in the end are of no real value in this situation. Keep lock in as much as possible & keep washing the hands. Just my thoughts.

Totally agree and I deal with academia on a regular basis and there's a fair amount of inter-academic jealousy out there. Though I think ICL's best case 20k death rate in the UK sounds exaggerated but what do I know. I don't think it's helpful that this is played out in public either as it just fuels confusion imho. Bottom line is do we want to face the issues which Italy and Spain have at the moment? Hunker down and carry on for the foreseeable I reckon.

I do wonder about myself; at the end of last year I was displaying all the symptoms of CV before we went on holiday to the far east... the doctors were unable to identify whatever it was I had. I really think we need to see wide area testing for antibodies.

Agree with you G_Man- their theories always get debunked in the end whether that be positivism, broken window theory or whatever. I referred to broken window theory in 2005 when planning a scheme to design out crime in a city centre. It was great to justify the funding and crime also dropped...in the area the scheme ran...but actually displaced to other areas not reduced at all. A professor at the Scarman centre then Academically slagged off the scheme because...you guessed it...he was an advocate of the differing viewpoint.

Interesting Neil, also before Christmas Mrs Ed had an unheard of sore throat (bad), headaches, aching limbs and listlessness for over two months. The doc couldn't find anything but on the second occasion sent her to hospital for a check-up - they found nothing either.

Things are certainly getting tougher here in Australia with a number of State and Territory borders closed to all but essential travel (freight delivery etc).

Grocery stores have had restrictions on a lot of items (because of panic buying) for a while and now our large hardware chain has also introduced restrictions on cleaning items as well as batteries and fuel storage containers. The restrictions include turps and metho of which I always keep a supply at home for all those jobs around the house so I have no need to rush out and buy some.

With pubs and clubs closed and only off licences operating, Western Australia has even imposed restrictions on the amount one can buy; guess they don't want alcohol fuelled gatherings.

In Queensland we have two rum distilleries, Bundaberg and Beenleigh. They have both now altered their production to produce ethanol for hand sanitizers. Lucky I have a supply of Bundy Rum in the cupboard!

An article in one of our Sunday newspapers (written by a journo who is also a mother) was about personal hygiene and how this is now being pushed by the Government. She wrote about how we should have all learnt this in kindergarten, how "Miss Tania" instilled in her pupils the correct way to wash our hands, how to cough/ sneeze correctly, and give each other that bit of personal space. Looks like a lot of her pupils have forgotten the basics!

Well now I AM confused. Dr Neil Ferguson (from Imperial College) has been reported in the The Times (11 hours ago or so) as saying the UK WILL probably cope better than he forecast originally - even saying that the expected number of deaths might well be not far off those that would have been expected anyway this year.

IF this is so, why has neither C4 news nor BBC online news even mentioned it in passing? They pride themselves in scooping the latest titbit so unless Ferguson has been held at knifepoint by the Times or they have been gagged, what is going on?

Vlogs from NY also say hospitals are deserted and ambulances standing outside with crews tucking into lunch.

Of course THEY might be making it up....

My dad is in his 80’s with a heart condition and lives in Cornwall many miles from me. His view is that this is no worse than the flu and refuses to stay indoors..

The same people around here, clapping the NHS last night, are the same people that are having friends and family around as usual and sitting in the garden enjoying the sun, while the people like me are in work and keeping away from family due to the worry with this virus.

Sick of hearing about 'frontline staff', when the likes of me is exposed to it more, with no protection besides some gloves and a shitty mask!

Agree with you Theresa - there are many out there who have responsibility for risk groups without any PPE who fall through the cracks. My Mum and Dad are in very sheltered housing in Edinburgh and the staff have none apart from gloves and is a real worry.



I think NF has said that comments have been taken out of context and sticks with his modelling based on the measures being adhered to. My humble view is if the claims that C19 were circulating in the UK back in January then why didn't the UK experience the death rate increasing earlier? This first UK death was only on the 5th March and now sits at 760.

Came across this from 2018 which is the science, maths and medicine behind pandemics:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p059y0p1

Quite prophetic given the current situation...

Agree with above. I can't see how the virus arrived much earlier, given the % of people needing hospital treatment. My main concern is why we seem to have been caught with our pants down in the UK when we knew what was coming. It doesn't inspire confidence.

If course they're are things we probably don't know so it's difficult to know whether the right decisions were made.

And as for peddling the idea that it's not a big deal (e.g. Certain world leaders) to think China and Italy would shut down millions of people without justification is a bit of a stretch.

Once this is all over, I truly hope there is a change in peoples' attitudes.

A lot of people like to toot their own horn and arrogantly act as if they are very important just because of their well paying job that has a fancy sounding title. And on top of that a lot of people obsess over celebrities in general.

Well, as this situation has proven, when the shit hit the fan, it quickly became very clear who the essential workers were.

Thank you Theresa, and to everybody else that is an essential worker during these times. Be safe everyone!

Well said JKD..

Yes indeed. Glad the likes of Tim Martin and Mike Ashley were publicly 'lynched' by Social Media; all the captains of industry, bankers, movie stars, sports personalities, celebrities and 'our' false idols suddenly nowhere and no-one really cares as they are unimportant and their fees/wages/benefits a disgrace. If only such a social crisis would provide more equality, ethical markets. fairer taxation, the end to food poverty, more parity in pay and benefits et al. Alas those at the top have all bunkered down many weeks ago, shifted their business models to exploit and make money or a pretence of being in it with us all, cranked up the bullshit and propaganda machines and rhetoric and will re-emerge once they feel it is medically safe to do so whilst those at the bottom of the social order who have kept society functioning putting their lives at risk are all ready to be further exploited and fleeced once again when this is over....for instance the delivery drivers keeping our larders stocked and enabling products to continue to be purchased online as the High St closes are not even considered as employees in most companies they have no sick pay, zero hour contracts, an atrociously poor hourly rate of pay, no holiday pay, no protection from exploitation.

I don't think the UK was caught out with it's pants down, vote for neo-liberalism you get neo-liberalism. Thankfully it would appear the Govt has been unable to continue such policies in light of this crisis risking the 'wheel coming off' and to me that proves to some extent that there are far better viable options for a fairer, healthier society when there is the impetus to undertake it.

Mrs JB, an eminently well woman, was absolutely flattened by something in November last, off colour for two/three weeks, flu-like symptoms, persistent cough, shortness of breath, raging fever. Last time I saw her ill like that was 18 yrs ago when 38 weeks pregnant with our youngest when she was hospitalised with a form of Norovirus.
I firmly believe she had Covid19 last year, we've all likely had it within the house, in different formats, and as has been said, if we were tested we could all get out there to help others safely. But of course key workers are a priority for testing (although we 5 could become 'safe temporary key workers'). I don't think we will ever know the truth about Wuhan and when it all really started due to the Chinese propaganda machine anyway, hence my suspicion about Mrs JB.

Stay well all.

I was also suffering from Nov right the way through to mid Jan with Covid like symptoms and I thought I had the ‘proper’ flu rather than a usual cold. Along with the shortness of breath, cough and temperature at one point my whole body was aching including bizarrely my fingernails which were painful to touch. Two weeks in it got better for a couple of days before returning and completely flooring me. I spent 4 days in bed pretty much unable to do anything

I was knocked out with the worse 'flu I've ever had last October/November. Temperature of well over 39, couldn't get out of bed and ended up going to hospital with pneumonia. Ironically, I had had the flu jab for the first time.

Sounds like there was something Nasty doing the rounds in Leicester Dan

I think the truth about the current situation is that we’re realising our reliance on the people that actually do physical good: keep us healthy, fed, warm, clean, safe etc rather than simply entertained or some of the other superficial stuff.

I’m going to throw in a shout for engineers, scientist and associated technicians. There’s no talk of power cuts, water turning off or, indeed, many issues with the internet or other comms. We’ve come to expect that we can have ventilators, face masks, and various tests at our finger tips in days. Behind the scenes, hospitals keep running - the equipment works - despite us not having spent much money on it. The maintenance staff continue to ensure it does. It’s always interested me that Germany has a much higher respect for its technical folk than many countries and maybe this is why. Certainly it’s those people that have created the wealth in that country.

There are lots of fabulous people doing amazing things out there. And there’s a lot of people who are of very little use to us right now.

Speaking as one of the latter, a big shout out to the former.

This enforced hiatus has led to a lot of reflection in our household - I think a lot will change for good and sometimes for the better.

As an NHS worker who is not considered 'frontline' even though we have a lot of contact with the virus, patients with the virus and of course, the deceased that had/have the virus, I would like to thank all the shop workers and delivery drivers, etc., that are also experiencing the same (although hopefully not with the deceased ones lol), but without the recognition the NHS are having.

They are the ones that are keeping us all going and deserve as much praise as the NHS

Hey Theresa, my daughter is a charge nurse in Raigmore Hospital & she values everyone in her team including her cleaners & all associated, she even took under her wing the woman who ran a wee shop in her path to her office & checked on her when she could. Emotions running high they have a wee greet & catch up. My daughter feels she gets as much out of this as others.

My wife is considered “critical” nhs staff - the level of stress put upon her and her tea is ridiculous . Sometimes I get miffed when chatting with mates having a bit of a feet up Friday “Working from home” some have asked when she’ll start working from home or have time off - the answer is not a choice for her really - whilst I’m in the high risk category we made a decision that she’s needed and we will hold as long as we can... this is a massive risk for me personally as I take a heady mixture of immunosuppressant drugs for my condition. I play it down so as not to put much on her but she’s aware of the risks as am I. People are making tough choices out there - don’t forget that. I applaud the nhs staff in totality and also shop keepers and workers. We should be in shutdown. Now. 5 week minimum .

Daughter home after a long emotional shift & dropping off food/shopping for us, still having to keep our distance. She was on emergency cases & they've been told new rules. Old gentleman came in 70 although he did have the virus it wasn't the covid19, she had to see to other younger admissions & unfortunately the 70 year old died. Nothing she could do. She told us they are under immense pressure & this is the way it's going. Very sad indeed.

Shattering for her Jim, when you're already at full stretch as all these guys involved are, this is a kick in the guts. The irony is perhaps it will take this situation for "a" government to rethink their strategy on the NHS, hopefully more creatively and positively.